The Voice of Russia talked to Mikhail Alexandrov, a leading expert at the Center of military and political studies with MGIMO university in Moscow, and Mateusz Piskorski, Head of the European Center for Geopolitical Analysis, based in Poland.
Russian vice-premier Dmitry Rogozin, who is also President Putin's special representative to Transdniesteria, Moldova's breakaway region, has said he brought to Moscow a petition with some 30,000 signatures, asking Russia to recognize the region.
NATO has already issued another warning to Russia demanding to respect Moldova’s territorial integrity. NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow said the alliance would look "very negatively" at any attempt to bring Moldova's breakaway Transdniester region "closer to Russia." Vershbow also said he would discuss efforts to increase Moldova's military capacities.
Transdniestria, a self –proclaimed state , which broke away from Moldova in 1990, has long sought to join Russia. Now, watching the developments in the South-East of the neighbouring Ukraine, its half-a-million people - and 30 percent of them are Russians - have restated their wish.
I think it has partially already spread to Moldova. As we see there is tightening of a blockade around Moldova. The Russian representatives needed to use various techniques to get to the Transdniestrian region. And I think the situation will deteriorate further, as soon as we see the Kiev regime more and more losing control of the situation.
Is Russia interested in stirring of the tensions and eventually, like they are saying, annexing part of the territory of Moldova?
The conflict was started by the Moldova authorities who wanted to subdue the Transdniestrian region. Crime, Lugansk and Donetsk provinces, they detached themselves from Ukraine because they saw that it was impossible to continue being part of one state with the people who took power in Kiev. Similar situation happened in the Transdniestian region, but it happened at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
What led to more conflicts in the recent months, the new Government in Moldova started moving more and more towards Romania, towards the EU and the Transdniestrian region was excluded from the decision making on this issue. What can happen is that Moldova partially joins the association with the EU and to prevent the Transdniestrian region from conducting its own foreign economic policies, they will just completely block it from foreign trade and other means of communication with the outside world.
Nobody knows to what result this situation can lead. I cannot exclude the resumption of the military conflict. And Russia here acts as a mediator, it wants peace and calm in that region. But as the result of these unscrupulous policies of Kishinev and their support by the European bureaucracy the situation can deteriorate.
If the authorities of Moldova will not respect the opinions voiced by different regions and minorities in Moldova, as we have seen, for instance, in the case of the Gagauzian minority, which had its own referendum on the 2nd of February (I was an observer at that referendum too), then more and more people, more and more regions, more and more communities in Moldova (I’m talking also about the Bulgarian community, about the Gagauzian community, about some of the Russian speaking Moldovans too) may feel disappointed.
And they may even feel threatened by the idea of the so-called greater Romania, because, as we all know, the current President of Romania, as well as the current authorities of Moldova are quite often mentioning the idea of the unification between those two countries and the romanization of Moldova, which makes all the minorities threatened and which creates several tensions between Kishinev and other regions there.
So, we can expect that in case the current authorities of Moldova will continue its nationalist rhetoric and line, then we can expect some turmoil and some tensions in different Moldovan regions.
From your experience, what makes the decision of recognition or non-recognition? Why would the states consider the vote valid or non-valid, in general?
When it comes to the recognition, of course, recognition of non-recognition of a referendum is always used as a kind of political instrument. In case of the West, in case of particularly the US, but also, unfortunately, most of the EU politicians, we can speak about double standards if we see their recognition of several referendums, for instance, in the former Yugoslavian countries, in the Balkans and their non-recognition of the quite similar referendums on the post-Soviet area.
As we all know, the current Moldovan Government is supervised by some Western powers. We had information about the presence of the State Department and the CIA officials there in Kishinev.
Moldova is the first country and the smallest country in the so-called Eastern Partnership Program, which is going to sign and accept the Association agreement with the EU, as well as the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU, which is of course opposed and criticized by the party of the communists that will probably come to power in just a few months.
We will have parliamentary elections in September and that’s why, I guess, the current Government is trying to solve all its commitments to the West. Most of the observers, experts and political scientists expect that the communist party will get to power. And of course, the idea of foreign policy in the communist party is quite different from the idea of the current coalition Government in Kishinev.
Is the West interested in creating chaos along the Russian borders?
According to the old geopolitical plans designed in the Department of State, Russia and also the EU could be weakened by creating different zones of political instability along their borders. This is a plan quite similar to the destabilization of the Arab countries. Now they tried to create some kind of post-Soviet nationalist Spring on the territories of different post-Soviet countries. But it is not so easy as it was in the Arabic countries.
Источники: Voice of Russia 18 июня 2014